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Best Actress in a Leading Role 2011 – 2012

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Listed in accordance to likely win.

Nominees

Viola Davis, “The Help”

Michelle Williams, “My Week With Marilyn”

Meryl Streep, “The Iron Lady”

Rooney Mara, “The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo”

Glenn Close, “Albert Nobbs”

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Analysis 

Updated: December 19, 2011

After being initially snubbed by critics, Glenn Close has now crept back up into contention with nods from SAG and the Golden Globes. And with lacking critical support, Young Adult‘s Oscar play looks to have hit a road block. Charlize Theron still remains a viable threat, but given that Tilda Swinton has now garnered the majority of critics praise, it really does look like an open and shut case. Unlike with Best Actor, the precursor stage has been largely uniform in pronouncing these five woman as the most likely to be nominated.

The only real question to ask is: Who is the frontrunner?

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Analysis 

Updated: December 3, 2011

If there’s one thing that has disappointed me in these precursors, it’s that Martha Marcy May Marlene has been shutout of the conversation. Elizabeth Olsen’s amazing performance has been overshadowed by Felicity Jones’ performance in Like Crazy and the film itself has yet to be cited for any Best Feature Debut awards yet. There’s still time, but it’s not the kind of start this sort of film needed.

But among all the early awards announced, my favorite citation has to be for Tilda Swinton in We Need to Talk about Kevin. Like Martha Marcy May Marlene, it’s a difficult film to embrace, but one of such visceral power.

If there’s one thing to take out of these early precursors though, it’s that the Best Actress race is, as we had known before, between Viola Davis and Meryl Streep.

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Analysis 

Updated: October 24, 2011

Charlize Theron stands out amid the female contenders for the comedic material she’s working with; she seems like a shoo-in for a nomination.

Otherwise, there seems to be two open slots for five other women. Elizabeth Olsen and Rooney Mara both represent a new age of actresses; though the older guard could still make their presence felt with Glenn Close on their heels. The dark horse here remains Tilda Swinton; her film is critically acclaimed AND she delivers a career best performance. That’s a combination that Michelle Williams and Glenn Close don’t have.

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Analysis 

Updated: October 15, 2011

Sight unseen, Meryl Streep remains the one to beat; or rather, she remains the one with the best chances for the nomination. Viola Davis remains hot on  her heels, though I’m hesitant to call her the front-runner just yet.

The big problem going into these predictions is how many of these films are seen in an unfavorable light – My Week With Marilyn hasn’t been getting very positive reviews. Same goes for Albert Nobbs. It’s a big reason why I’m forecasting Elizabeth Olsen; her film has the buzz AND the performance. On another note, Rooney Mara seems impressive based on the trailer for The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo, and I’m wagering the film could really make a splash.

Now if only there can be some buzz for the amazing Tilda Swinton…. 

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