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Best Original Screenplay 2011 – 2012

Best Original Screenplay

 Listed in accordance to likely win

Nominees

Midnight in Paris” (Woody Allen)

“The Artist” (Michel Hazanavicius)

“A Separation” (Asghar Farhadi)

Bridesmaids” (Annie Mumolo, Kristen Wiig)

“Margin Call” (J.C. Candor)

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Analysis 

Updated: December 20, 2011

Perhaps I’m being stubborn, but I really can’t get behind a film like 50/50 scoring a nomination here. It’s gotten its fair share of notices, but with absolutely nothing else to lean on in the awards season, I really can’t see it going all the way. It’s different for a screenplay like Beginners, as it has Christopher Plummer leading the charge. Similarly, the critical adoration that’s behind Bridesmaids certainly positions the film in a good spot.

The frontrunners remains, as they have all season, Midnight in Paris and The Artist. 

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Analysis 

Updated: December 4, 2011

It’s a tough category. Midnight in Paris and The Artist remain the steadfast frontrunners. Critics are bringing Beginners into the fray, but otherwise, there’s plenty of movement all-around. It’s really up for grabs, with citations for films like 50/50 and Win Win littering various critics groups. I’m taking a slightly different route though, expecting Diablo Cody to get her second nomination for the fourth spot, with Asghar Farhadi getting a surprise nomination for the fifth spot. The category is too fluid to not pick a dark horse.

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Analysis 

Updated: October 15, 2011

It’s a messy field, with only the first two being the only films I have any faith in making it all the way. I’m somewhat convinced that Martha Mary May Marlene will get a spot, largely on the strength of Olsen carrying the film ala Jennifer Lawrence in Winter’s Bone.

Young Adult seems to be more of the same from Diablo Cody, but she is an Oscar winner; that carries a particular weight, especially given that she’s working with Jason Reitman again. I’m taking a bit of a gamble on Separation, but the buzz around the film has been strong, and if there’s going to be a foreign film that will come into play, that’s the one.

Otherwise, I can only reasonably guess that the next two films will really be contending for those last spots; J. Edgar could be in play, though I’m skeptical.

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